How Low Can It Go?

I was reading an article last week about Natural Gas saying it was at $2.50 but by the time it was published (a weekly subscription) the price was at $2.12.  Today the price is $2.07.  One year ago the price was $5. In 2008 it was $10.

The term "Savvy Investors" must be the new way to make people think there is some secret out there that only a few people know about.  Numerous headlines and advertisements use this term about the current levels of Natural Gas. 

Any Oklahoma business has HUGE risk associated with the Oil and Gas business.  If you work directly in the business even more.  Consequently we are more interested in how to diversify that risk than to speculate farther. 


Incidentally, we are finding that to speculate on the current low prices would SIGNIFICANTLY increase risk even if we weren't in OKC.  A portfolio of stocks proposed by a cynical financial writer included 4 companies here in the Oklahoma City area.  Commodity options are a way but only for the pros.  The ETF "UNG" does not seem capable of making it easy to capitalize on the low prices without some stuff we really don't want called ROLL RISK. 

In my opinion this is about as big an issue for Oklahomans as anything.  Business income, job security, real estate values, and tax revenues are just a few things worth noting.  Of course my experience is having started business in 1982 in OKC--more or less at the peak of the oil boom.  I am hopeful that this time will be VERY different and at the same time wonder how low can it go and for how long.