Here are pictures of the 3 guys who shared the Nobel Prize in Economics this year. Just to remind us of how fuzzy economics is the two guys on the left and right disagree with one another and the guy in the middle has math programs to explain the theories but no one really talks about him much since he doesn't disagree with the others.
I asked the kooky professor, who in the last blog talked about the issues with respect to connectedness, and he said something like--"the Nobel committee owed these guys and I was glad to see them in. I most agree with Shiller (left above) and most disagree with Fama. (right above)"
Shiller says that there is a significant component of market prices that is BEHAVIORAL in nature and therefore you can notice pricing bubbles. (He called the dotcom and the real estate bubbles.)
Fama says that you can't forecast prices and that the markets are efficient and priced as they should be and therefore just try to mirror the markets.
It is interesting to me that the prize was not awarded for work done recently but instead for many years of contributions to the field. Interesting because Fama has recently changed his strategy. I do believe that human behavior--especially when significant power and information is consolidated into the hands of so few--may be more important than ever before. (think governments and large banks)
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